HPAS 2024 Mains GS-1 Question 4
When can a hazard become a disaster? Give examples.
Solution:
A hazard becomes a disaster when it intersects with a vulnerable population that lacks the capacity to cope with its impact. The key is that hazards are natural or man-made, but disasters are largely a result of human and societal factors.
First, let’s define the terms:
- A Hazard is a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, or environmental degradation. It is a potential threat. (e.g., an earthquake, a cyclone, a chemical spill).
- A Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community to cope using its own resources. It is a realized event.
The Transition: The Disaster Risk Equation
The transition from a hazard to a disaster is best explained by the Disaster Risk Equation, which conceptually states:
Disaster Risk = (Hazard × Vulnerability) / Capacity
Based on this, a hazard becomes a disaster under the following conditions:
- When it strikes a vulnerable population: Vulnerability refers to the characteristics and circumstances of a community that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. This includes:
- Physical Vulnerability: e.g., poorly constructed buildings on unstable slopes.
- Social Vulnerability: e.g., high population density, poverty, inequality, or lack of access to information.
- Economic Vulnerability: e.g., lack of diversified livelihoods; high dependence on a single crop.
- When coping capacity is low: Capacity is the combination of all strengths, attributes, and resources available within a community to manage and reduce disaster risks. When capacity (e.g., early warning systems, emergency services, financial reserves, public awareness) is insufficient, a hazard’s impact is magnified into a disaster.
- When the hazard’s magnitude is overwhelming: Sometimes, the sheer intensity of the hazard (a “mega-disaster”) can overwhelm even a well-prepared society. However, this is rare, and usually, the disaster’s scale is still determined by underlying vulnerabilities.
Examples of a Hazard Becoming a Disaster
Example 1: Earthquakes
- Hazard: A 7.0 magnitude earthquake.
- Scenario A (Not a Disaster): The earthquake strikes in a remote, uninhabited desert. Since there is no vulnerability (no people or property to damage), it remains only a hazardous event.
- Scenario B (A Mitigated Event): The same earthquake strikes a city in Japan. Due to high capacity (strict building codes, public preparedness drills, rapid emergency response), damage is minimal and loss of life is very low. It is a crisis, but not a full-scale disaster.
- Scenario C (A Disaster): The same earthquake strikes a densely populated city with high vulnerability (poorly constructed buildings, high poverty, lack of enforcement) and low capacity (inadequate emergency services). This results in catastrophic building collapse, massive loss of life, and a complete breakdown of societal functions (e.g., the 2010 Haiti Earthquake).
Example 2: Cyclones
- Hazard: A powerful tropical cyclone.
- Scenario A (Disaster): The 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone in India. At the time, vulnerability was high (dense coastal population, kuccha houses) and capacity was low (limited early warning systems, poor evacuation infrastructure). The hazard resulted in a massive disaster with over 10,000 deaths.
- Scenario B (Hazard Managed): The 2013 Cyclone Phailin, a storm of similar intensity, struck the same region. In the intervening years, India had built up its capacity (invested in Doppler radars, created dedicated disaster response forces (NDRF), and established clear evacuation protocols). This high capacity allowed for the pre-emptive evacuation of nearly one million people. The hazard was still immense, but the disaster was averted (fatalities were in the double digits, not thousands).
Example 3: Drought (Slow-onset Hazard)
- Hazard: Two consecutive seasons of failed monsoons.
- Scenario A (Hazard Managed): In a country with high capacity, this is managed with irrigation systems, grain reserves (like FCI godowns), and social safety nets (like MGNREGA). It causes economic stress but does not become a disaster.
- Scenario B (Disaster): In a region with high vulnerability (subsistence farmers, no food security, political instability) and no capacity, this hazard transitions into a disaster: famine.
Conclusion
A hazard is a trigger, but it only becomes a disaster when it hits a “soft target”—a society or community made vulnerable by social, economic, and political factors, and which lacks the capacity to withstand the shock. This is why disaster management is increasingly focused on reducing vulnerability and building resilience, not just on responding to hazards.
Concise Model Answer (150-Word Limit)
A hazard is a potential threat, like an earthquake or cyclone. It becomes a disaster only when it intersects with a vulnerable population whose capacity to cope is overwhelmed.
The transition is governed by the risk equation: Disaster Risk = (Hazard × Vulnerability) / Capacity.
This means hazard turns into disaster when:
- Vulnerability is High: This includes physical vulnerability (poorly built homes), social vulnerability (poverty, high population density) and economic vulnerability (lack of resources).
- Coping Capacity is Low: This means lack of early warning systems, inadequate emergency services, or low public awareness.
Example : If 7.0 magnitude earthquake (hazard) strikes in the middle of remote, uninhabited desert, it remains just hazard. The ground shakes, but there is no loss of life or property damage because there is no vulnerability.
However, if that exact same earthquake (hazard) strikess densely populated city with weak infrastructure (high vulnerability) and no emergency plans (low capacity), it becomes catastrophic disaster, causing massive loss of life.