HPAS 2024 GS2 Question 17

HPAS 2024 Mains GS-2 Question 17

Analyse the impact of instability in South Asian States on India’s neighborhood policy.

Solution:

India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy is predicated on the belief that India cannot achieve its global ambitions unless its periphery is stable and prosperous. However, South Asia is currently witnessing a “polycrisis”—from the economic collapse in Sri Lanka to the Taliban’s return in Afghanistan and political shifts in Bangladesh and the Maldives.

1. Security Challenges and Non-State Actors

Instability often creates power vacuums that are filled by radical elements:

• Cross-Border Terrorism: Instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan directly impacts India’s internal security, leading to increased infiltration and the threat of radicalization.
• Refugee Influx: Political turmoil in Myanmar (coup) and Bangladesh (recent shifts) often leads to large-scale migration, straining India’s resources and altering the demography of border states like Mizoram and West Bengal.

2. The “China Factor” and Strategic Encroachment

Economic instability in the region has opened doors for extra-regional powers:

• Debt-Trap Diplomacy: Countries facing economic crises (e.g., Sri Lanka, Maldives) often look toward China for high-interest loans, leading to the “leasing” of strategic assets like Hambantota Port, which directly threatens India’s maritime security.
• Shift in Alliances: Political instability often leads to “pro-China” regimes coming to power (as seen in recent Maldivian cycles), forcing India to engage in sensitive “firefighting” diplomacy.

3. Impact on Regional Integration

• Paralysis of SAARC: Hostility with Pakistan and general regional instability have made SAARC a dysfunctional body, forcing India to pivot toward sub-regional groupings like BIMSTEC and BBIN.
• Connectivity Hurdles: Civil war in Myanmar and instability in Afghanistan stall major projects like the **IMT Trilateral Highway** and the **TAPI Pipeline**.

4. India’s Policy Recalibration: From Big Brother to “First Responder”

In response to this instability, India has modified its approach:

• Economic Support: Providing billions in currency swaps and aid to Sri Lanka without conditionalities to prevent total collapse.
• Humanitarian Leadership: Acting as a first responder during disasters and crises (e.g., Operation Dost, Vaccine Maitri).
• Non-Interference: Moving away from being seen as an “interfering big brother” to a supportive, stable, and reliable democratic partner.

Concise Model Answer (150-Word Limit)

Instability in South Asia acts as a significant “threat multiplier” for India’s neighborhood policy. Political and economic turmoil in states like Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives forces India to shift from long-term integration to crisis management.

Key Impacts:

1. Security Vulnerability: Instability facilitates cross-border terrorism, smuggling, and illegal migration, straining border management.
2. Strategic Challenges: Economic distress in the neighborhood allows China to expand its footprint through debt-trap diplomacy and strategic asset acquisition.
3. Regional Paralysis: Political friction hampers SAARC, leading India to prioritize sub-regional forums like BIMSTEC.

Consequently, India has recalibrated its policy to act as a “Net Security Provider” and “First Responder,” focusing on unconditional economic aid and humanitarian assistance to maintain its role as a regional anchor and counter-balance extra-regional influence.